Procurement decisions are rarely wrong because of bad intent. They are wrong because they are taken at the wrong moment.
This moment is subtle.
Often invisible.
And almost always misunderstood.
Most people imagine procurement as a rational sequence:
observe → evaluate → decide → execute.
In reality, the decision moment arrives earlier than people realise — and under pressure.
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The moment no one plans for
It’s early November near Lalsot.
The onion crop has come suddenly, faster than expected. Temperatures dipped. Growth accelerated.
Vijay, an aggregator, calls:
“Aaj bahut maal aa raha hai.
Kal nahi liya toh sab mandi chala jaayega.”
The procurement team had planned to start buying next week.
Rates were still being discussed.
Storage was not fully ready.
But the crop has arrived today.
This is the procurement decision moment.
Not when paperwork is ready.
Not when prices are finalised.
But when reality knocks before preparation does.
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Why timing beats logic
Procurement logic looks good on paper:
• volumes,
• rates,
• quality specs,
• cash flow.
But the decision moment is governed by:
• crop maturity,
• weather shocks,
• festival demand,
• school fees,
• labour availability,
• and rumours spreading faster than facts.
A farmer doesn’t wait for your spreadsheet.
Milk doesn’t wait for your finance approval.
A goat doesn’t stop growing because your warehouse is full.
Nature sets the clock. Procurement must respond.
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Early, right, late — the three kinds of decisions
Every procurement decision falls into one of three categories.
Early decisions
Taken before pressure peaks.
• Farmers are flexible.
• Quality is negotiable.
• Logistics can be planned.
These decisions feel slow — but they are the safest.
Right-time decisions
Taken when preparation and reality align.
• Rates are known.
• Capacity exists.
• Systems are ready.
These are ideal — and rare.
Late decisions
Taken after pressure explodes.
• Farmers are distressed.
• Quality has deteriorated.
• Bargaining power has shifted.
These decisions feel urgent — and cause the most damage.
Most procurement failures come from late decisions disguised as responsiveness.
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The false heroism of urgency
There is a dangerous romance around urgency.
People say:
• “We responded quickly.”
• “We didn’t abandon farmers.”
• “We acted on the ground.”
But speed without preparedness is not leadership.
It is reaction.
A procurement system that celebrates urgency will:
• accept bad quality,
• delay payments,
• overload logistics,
• and normalise exceptions.
Good governance does the opposite.
It slows the decision moment just enough to prevent regret.
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Seasonal blindness
Many procurement teams forget one thing every year:
Every season has its own decision rhythm.
• Tomato in January behaves differently than tomato in May.
• Milk flow during winter mornings is not the same as summer afternoons.
• Live animal prices spike before festivals, not after.
Yet decisions are often made using last season’s assumptions.
This creates mismatch:
• buying too early at high rates,
• buying too late at low trust,
• or missing the window entirely.
Governance requires seasonal memory — not just historical data.
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The danger of verbal commitments
The procurement decision moment often starts with a sentence like:
“Dekh lenge.”
“Agar rate baithe toh le lenge.”
“Aaj mat bolo, kal final karte hain.”
These half-commitments are poison.
Farmers hear yes.
Buyers think maybe.
Staff assume approval.
By the time a formal decision is taken, behaviour has already moved.
The decision moment has passed — governance hasn’t.
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When saying “wait” is the hardest call
Waiting sounds easy.
It is not.
Waiting means:
• farmers may go elsewhere,
• competitors may step in,
• volumes may scatter.
But waiting is sometimes the only ethical choice.
Buying without readiness:
• creates false hope,
• shifts risk silently to farmers,
• and converts uncertainty into conflict.
A governed system allows waiting without guilt.
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Milk teaches this best
Milk procurement exposes decision timing brutally.
If you miss one evening pickup:
• trust erodes instantly,
• cows don’t pause production,
• farmers adjust loyalties overnight.
This is why milk systems that survive decades:
• fix pickup times rigidly,
• fix rates transparently,
• and never improvise on payment cycles.
They understand the decision moment is daily, repetitive, and unforgiving.
Vegetables and animals follow the same logic — just less visibly.
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The real question at the decision moment
At the heart of every procurement decision moment is one question:
Are we prepared to honor the consequences of this decision — even if conditions worsen tomorrow?
If the answer depends on:
• luck,
• favourable weather,
• or farmers being patient,
then the decision is premature.
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Governance reframes the moment
Governance does not remove pressure.
It reframes the moment.
Instead of asking:
• “Should we buy now?”
It asks:
• “Are our systems ready to absorb stress if we buy now?”
This single shift changes everything.
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What the next chapters will do
Now that we understand:
• who decides (Chapter 3),
• and when the real decision moment occurs (Chapter 4),
we move to the most sensitive terrain:
• price,
• terms,
• and expectation FOMO.
Because once a decision is taken,
everything else flows from it — or collapses.
